Will BTC spot price follow?

On Nov. 30, Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (BTC CME) rose to $100,200 for the second time in 7 days after initially hitting the milestone on Nov. 22.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) spot price has yet to reach $100,000, but the cryptocurrency shows promise as it briefly hit an intra-day high at $98,600 before selling off.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, Bitcoin futures open interest at CME surpassed 40,000 contracts and prior to the Nov. 29 Thanksgiving holiday, CME Bitcoin futures volumes were at $12.3 billion. 

Trading volumes surged in the EU and NY session after US stock markets were closed on Nov. 29 in observance of the Thanksgiving holiday. A strong spot bid can be observed at Coinbase where the spread or “Coinbase premium” between BTC/USD price and Bitcoin spot price at Binance has exceeded $200. 

Despite the CME BTC futures hitting $100,200 and Bitcoin’s spot price making an effort to achieve the same result, consistent selling near the 6-figure market continues to hamper the effort. 

Popular crypto and stocks trader Horse described the $100,000 level as “a fortress” and said that “each time we trade close, I imagine some of that positioning takes early exits at market.” 

As shown in the chart below, Bitcoin price pulls back as it taps into the thick red wall of asks that extend from $99,700 to $100,000 and above. Alongside the strong spot bid at Coinbase, the use of leverage at Bybit and Binance reflects traders’ desire to push BTC over the $100,000 level. 

Liquidations in the futures market have also played a role in the Nov. 30 Bitcoin price action, where roughly $55 million in short positions have been forced closed. 

Given the robust selling near $100,000, data from CoinGlass suggests that bulls will need to press Bitcoin price to $99,000 to trigger the next liquidation cascade that could generate the force needed to take BTC spot price above $100,000.